I’ll admit it: planning season sneaks up on me like daylight savings — it feels early, throws me off, and I’m left scrambling to adjust.
Suddenly, I’m staring at spreadsheets, trying to bridge the gap between pie-in-the-sky pipeline targets and the harsh realities of execution.
Planning is a high-stakes exercise in articulating a vision, aligning cross-functional teams, and driving measurable impact. It’s strategy, execution, and leadership all rolled into one — and, frankly, it can feel overwhelming.
I’ve been caught drowning in data, tangled in attribution debates (it’s the marketing version of The Great British Bake Off — everyone has a “perfect recipe”), or second-guessing my assumptions.
And I’ve realized this isn’t a task you master overnight — it’s one you refine every year.
Recently, I had the opportunity to step back and re-examine my approach during a conversation with Emily Kramer, co-founder of MKT1 and a veteran marketer who has led marketing teams at companies like Asana and Carta. It was like speaking to Yoda of B2B marketers, but instead of dispensing cryptic wisdom, she gave tactical strategies and a no-nonsense approach to planning.
Here’s what I’ve learned about planning and forecasting, from the big-picture frameworks to the nitty-gritty details.
Let’s get into it.
The purpose of planning: More than just hitting a number
Planning is often misinterpreted as reverse-engineering a pipeline goal or revenue target. While those metrics are important, they’re not the point. Effective planning answers three essential questions:
- How will we win in the short term? What initiatives will drive immediate results, ensuring the business meets its pipeline and revenue goals this year?
- How will we set up for long-term success? What foundational investments (brand, tools, research) will create compounding returns over time?
- How will we balance impact and efficiency? Where can we allocate resources — time, budget, headcount — to maximize ROI?
At its core, planning is about building a roadmap that balances short-term execution with long-term strategy. It’s not just a list of tactics or a dollar figure. It’s a narrative about how your team will deliver value and scale effectively.
Start with strategy, not spreadsheets
Before you dive into numbers, you need a plan. Too often, marketers (like me) start forecasting without a clear understanding of their goals and initiatives, leading to disconnected models and vague assumptions.
Planning and forecasting aren’t chicken and egg — they’re sequential. You plan first, then forecast.
Step 1: Define your big bets
Big bets are the cornerstone of your plan. These are the high-impact initiatives that will differentiate your marketing strategy. Examples include:
- Launching a new product or feature.
- Entering a new market or targeting a new ICP.
- Hosting a flagship event, like a user conference or major virtual summit.
- Overhauling your website to improve conversion rates.
Your big bets should directly align with the company’s overall objectives and focus on driving measurable outcomes.
Catch the part 1 of the masterclass on Annual Planning and Forecasting with Emily Kramer over here.
Step 2: Set your goals
Emily suggests thinking beyond traditional KPIs by adopting the KPO framework:
- KPI Goals: Metrics like MQLs, SQLs, pipeline, and revenue.
- Project Goals: Deliverables like launching a new campaign or completing an audience research initiative.
- Ops Goals: Foundational work like implementing new tools, improving workflows, or upgrading your attribution model.
For example, instead of simply setting a goal to “increase MQLs by 20%”, pair it with project and ops goals like “launch an ABM pilot for enterprise accounts” and “refine lead-to-account matching”.
Step 3: Map your assumptions
A good plan ties every initiative to a measurable outcome. If you’re hosting a major event, what’s the expected impact on top-of-funnel traffic, leads, or pipeline? If you’re implementing a new tool, what efficiency gains do you anticipate?
This is where an assumptions tab becomes critical. For each initiative, document:
- What you’re doing: For e.g., implementing an ABM campaign
- When it will happen: For e.g., March
- What does it impact: For e.g., Pipeline
- What impact you expect: For e.g., a 15% boost in conversion rates for enterprise accounts
These assumptions become the inputs for your forecast, ensuring every number is tied to a tangible action.
Which of the four levers for growth are you going to pull?
As you build your plan, remember that growth boils down to just four levers. Every initiative should align with one or more of these:
- Increase Top-of-Funnel Volume: This is all about winning more from your current market.
- Expand to New Segments: Targeting a new ICP, launching in a new region, or creating a new use case for your product.
- Improve Funnel Efficiency: Boosting conversion rates at critical stages (e.g., traffic-to-MQL, MQL-to-SQL) or reducing the sales cycle.
- Increase Revenue Per Customer: Growing ACVs, expanding upsell and cross-sell opportunities, or targeting larger enterprise deals.
For example, if your plan includes launching a new product, you need to quickly figure out if that new product line serves your existing persona or an entirely new set of persona. Because that will dictate which lever you’re going to pull and the kind of activities you’ll need to prioritize.
Forecasting: Bridge the gap between strategy and execution
Forecasting isn’t just about plugging numbers into a spreadsheet. It’s about connecting your strategy to your expected outcomes in a way that allows for iterative improvement.
Top-Down vs. Bottom-Up
There are two primary approaches to forecasting:
- Top-Down Forecasting: Starts with a revenue target and works backward to determine the required pipeline and MQLs. It’s aspirational but often disconnected from operational realities.
- Bottom-Up Forecasting: Starts with historical data—traffic, conversion rates, ACVs—and builds a forecast based on achievable improvements. It’s grounded but can miss the upside of transformational initiatives.
Create a “Do-Nothing” baseline
Before layering in improvements, start with a “do-nothing” forecast. This assumes no change in strategy, spend, or efficiency — just the baseline growth your business generates naturally.
Why this matters:
- Reality check: If baseline growth is 5% but leadership expects 30%, you know you need to align expectations.
- Highlighting value: Every improvement becomes a deliberate choice, bridging the gap between baseline and target.
Making the model dynamic
A good forecast isn’t static. It’s a living, breathing tool that helps you make smarter decisions throughout the year. Here’s how to structure it effectively:
- Break the funnel down: Start with traffic, leads, MQLs, SQLs, and closed-won deals. Use historical data to establish baseline conversion rates at each stage.
- Separate revenue streams: Forecast new revenue and expansion revenue separately. They often follow different patterns and require distinct strategies.
- Add granularity: For paid campaigns, break out traffic by channel (e.g., Google Ads, LinkedIn). For organic, separate SEO from social or referral traffic.
- Account for seasonality: Adjust for seasonal trends to avoid mid-year surprises. For instance, if Q4 is historically slower, bake that into your model.
- Create scenarios: Build conservative, realistic, and optimistic scenarios to stress-test your assumptions. This also provides flexibility in navigating changes mid-year.
It's a powerful tool for expectation-setting cross-functionally. You can come in and say, 'Based on what we’re doing now, here’s what it looks like', and update it as things change.
Watch Emily Kramer walkthrough how to build a sample forecast on The Revenue Stream podcast over here.
Avoid the common pitfalls
Even the best plans can go awry without attention to detail. Here’s how to avoid the biggest traps:
- Random acts of marketing: Every initiative must tie back to a core growth lever. If it doesn’t move the needle, it doesn’t belong.
- Disconnected assumptions: Forecast improvements based on actual initiatives, not arbitrary percentages. If you predict a 15% increase in MQLs, ensure it’s tied to a specific project, like launching an ABM pilot or expanding your content library.
- Short-term myopia: Don’t sacrifice foundational work — like audience research or brand building — for immediate results. These investments compound over time.
- Attribution overload: Marketing’s impact is holistic, not just tied to MQLs or pipeline. Remember that marketing is a catalyst throughout the funnel, not just a lead generator.
Closing thoughts
Planning and forecasting might feel like a daunting exercise, but as Emily reminded me, it’s also a creative one. It’s about envisioning what’s possible and building a roadmap to get there—all while staying grounded in reality.
So the next time you’re staring at a spreadsheet, remember: it’s not just rows and columns. It’s a story. Your story of how your marketing team will win this year, next year, and beyond.
And if you need a little inspiration, Emily’s newsletter is packed with templates, tips, and enough spreadsheet talk to keep your inner data nerd happy.
As for me? I’m off to refine my assumptions tab and see just how far I can push those four growth levers. Wish me luck — and maybe send coffee. ☕
